2024 Wrapped: Yes, Climate Change Will Probably Kill You

But we’re not as screwed as you might think — or I may sound

A person walks along a road as the Franklin Fire approaches in Malibu, Calif., Dec. 10, 2024. (Source: Associated Press)

The year 2024 wasn’t just another chapter in the unfolding climate saga; it felt like the plot twist no one wanted to believe. For decades, climate scientists warned of ifs — if we pass this tipping point, if this system fails, if that glacier melts. But now, the “ifs” have turned into “whens,” and 2024 became the year we stopped debating. The signs of collapse were no longer hidden in data charts — they screamed from headlines and battered communities of a planetary endurance test against the “unprecedented,” the “uncharted,” and the “unpredictable,” relentless and unapologetic.

The evidence? It hit home early in the year, right in my very Patagonian backyard, an unmistakable reminder of its creeping brutality. Then came the stories that defied belief. Penguin chicks leaped off Antarctic cliffs to avoid starvation. Floods in Southern Brazil and Dubai turned roads into rivers. The last glacier in Venezuela vanished, taking a piece of history with it. Meanwhile, the Arctic tundra, long a silent ally in the fight against climate change, betrayed us, shifting from a carbon sink to a carbon source.

Each disaster felt like another block yanked from the precarious Jenga tower of planetary stability. How many more blocks could be pulled before it falls?

And yet, the list only grew. Coral reefs bleached into oblivion, forests burned, winds and currents became erratic, ice caps melted, and biodiversity hit a new low. The dream of supposed wealthy “climate havens” was buried under hurricane-force winds and deadly floods.

Even the simple pleasure of food turned sour — search climate change alongside your favorite food, and you’ll see how climate change now stalks our plates with every meal.

By year’s end, 2024 had seared its name into history not only as the hottest year on record — and likely at least 125,000 years — but as the first to breach the ominous 1.5ºC threshold.

At the same time, developing nations watched their cries for climate justice dismissed by the world’s wealthiest polluters, who carried on with their deadly business as usual, even as seven of nine planetary boundaries had been crossed. And waiting just beyond the horizon? The specter of a Trump 2.0 administration poised to lead the world’s largest historic emitter into deeper denial.

These are some grueling stories from the last 12 months. And while most people understand that climate change is real and driven by fossil fuel emissions and land-use changes, few grasp its inevitability on a personal level: that, one day, climate change will probably kill you.

Why Climate Change Will Probably Kill You

This is not an exaggeration or alarmism — it’s math. Brutal, uncompromising math.

First and foremost, climate change isn’t about a series of abstract environmental events — it’s about the very systems that sustain life: food production, clean water, and social stability.

Think about it: food production and freshwater supplies are already unraveling under the weight of unprecedented weather patterns. Crops are failing due to floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Your grocery bills? Those rising food prices aren’t just inflation — they’re climate change hitting your wallet. If we keep wasting it at these rates, it’s only a matter of time before there’s simply not enough food to go around.

What happens then? History shows us that hungry societies quickly become unstable, violent societies — fast. The world could become a much deadlier place.

Here’s where the numbers get personal: A comprehensive study of climate change mortality projects that up to one billion people could die from climate-related causes this century. That’s 26 times the death toll of World War II and roughly 13% of the global population. Think about your family — statistically, one in every three families could lose a loved one, all due to fossil-fueled devastation.

The science behind these predictions is a brutally simple scientific consensus called the “1000-ton rule” — for every 1,000 tons of carbon burned, one person dies prematurely. Every new fossil fuel project is essentially signing death warrants, with developing nations paying the highest price.

Your survival odds? They depend on how climate change manifests in your region. Here are the leading causes of climate-related deaths:

• Disease

• Heat stress

• Water scarcity

• Massive food shortages

• Mass migration and displacement

• Escalating natural disasters

• Conflict fueled by all of the above

This isn’t just an era of change — it’s the death of the Holocene, the 12,000-year climate sweet spot that allowed humans to thrive. Agriculture, cities, even the idea of stability — none of it was possible without the predictable temperatures and rainfall patterns of the Holocene. But that stability is gone, sacrificed on the altar of fossil fuel addiction.

Since the Industrial Revolution, we’ve pumped so much CO₂ into the atmosphere that levels have shot from 280 ppm to 425.70 ppm. For perspective, the natural rise of 100 ppm that ended the last Ice Age took 10,000 years. That glacial pace gave ecosystems time to adapt. Today’s carbon spike is like a lightning bolt in geological terms, triggering the sixth mass extinction and leaving the natural world reeling.

Just compare this 10,000-year chart of CO₂ concentration with this 12,000-year population chart. Can you see their resemblance?

We’ve Become the Human Asteroid

Think about this: every year, humanity burns through four centuries’ worth of ancient, buried life forms. What took millions of years to form, we destroy in an instant, transforming Earth’s history into heat, CO₂, and, ultimately, disaster.

The root of this crisis? Follow the money. A systemic, predatory inertia cloaked in diplomacy allows the wealthiest planet-wreckers — nations and corporations enriched by centuries of emissions — to perpetuate global warming. How? Because they’ve mastered the art of greenwashing, offering band-aid solutions while their profits soar and temperatures rise.

And somehow, we’re all complicit.

Our entire civilization runs on four materials that we can’t live without. Not Bitcoin, not smartphones — something far more fundamental. These building blocks of modern life are cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia. Without them, our world would crumble. Try feeding 8 billion people without ammonia-based fertilizers. Try building a wind turbine without steel. Try keeping food fresh without plastic. Try constructing a hospital without concrete. These aren’t luxury items — they’re the foundation of everything we consider normal — but they’re also the engines of our climate catastrophe.

Each year, humanity produces:

• 4 billion tons of cement — that’s two cars’ worth per person.

• 2 billion tons of steel — equal to 2,700 Empire State Buildings.

• 250 million tons of ammonia — the cornerstone of modern fertilizers.

• 400 million tons of plastics — that’s over 45 kilos for every single human.

Together, these materials consume 17% of global energy and account for 25% of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

And here’s the trap: demand is insatiable, production is inextricably tied to fossil fuels, and alternatives aren’t ready for large-scale deployment. Why? Because the industrial titans of Big Oil — and its offshoots, Big Agri, Big Plastic, and Big Construction — continue to feast on parasitic financial schemes, perpetuating a carbon-intensive nightmare instead of steering our global economy toward a sustainable future.

The cruel irony is that the same carbon-burning that gave us longer lives and unprecedented comfort is now shortening humanity’s future. As the human asteroid, we’re replicating the destruction that wiped out the dinosaurs, but instead of a sudden impact, we’re using cement mixers and oil rigs to chip away at our own future.

And there’s no undoing this. No shiny EV, no stack of solar panels, no canvas tote bag will erase the damage we’ve done. This fossil-fueled world has no reverse gear.

Sorry.

Beyond The Headlines

When talking about climate change, the media and scientists often focus on the first-order impacts: the melting of ice sheets, rising sea levels, and the increase in global temperatures that lead to heatwaves, droughts, and more frequent natural disasters. The message is often watered down, maybe to avoid panic or, more likely, because we’re simply not ready to face the brutal reality.

When people hear about it, the reactions are predictable:

• Rising sea levels by 1–2 meters by 2100? No problem, I’ll move inland.”

• Global temperatures rising by 3°C? No problem, I’ll live in a cold country and turn on the AC if it gets too hot.

• Another natural disaster? No problem, we’ve weathered worse and just rebuilt.

• Loss of biodiversity? Sad, but doesn’t affect me. The only ones I really care about are the ones I buy in the supermarket.

But this thinking is dangerously shortsighted. People fail to see the second-and-third-order impacts — the real consequences that will shape every aspect of life. Your morning coffee, smartphone, and grocery depend on an intricate web of global supply chains — all vulnerable to climate disruption: food on supermarket shelves, fuel at gas stations, water on tap, and electricity powering everything. When one thread snaps, the whole fabric starts to unravel. The system is already cracking, and communities worldwide are feeling it.

The science behind this is both fascinating and terrifying. A 400,000-year record shows CO₂, temperature, and sea levels in perfect sync, driven by natural factors like orbital eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession. This cycle repeats roughly every 100,000 years, and a 100 parts per million (ppm) increase in CO₂ has historically led to a 5°C temperature rise — enough to turn Earth into a different planet. But now we are forcing these changes at 100 times the natural speed.

(Source)

So, does this mean we’re already locked into a 5°C temperature rise if 100 ppm led to that before?

Not exactly. This isn’t a simple linear relationship. We’re dealing with a much more complex system, one that’s already at the brink of multiple tipping points with a weakened environment and natural defenses.

Also, the Earth’s climate is like a massive ship — it turns slowly, but once it starts turning, it’s hard to stop. There’s a lag effect between our actions and their consequences. When you step into 2024’s weather, you’re actually experiencing the aftermath of a 350–370 ppm world. The real impact of today’s 425 ppm CO₂ world is still loading.

And we are not stopping here.

Even in the best-case scenarios, where we manage to limit CO₂ emissions, we’re still projected to peak around 550 ppm. That’s like triggering two ice ages in reverse, faster than the Great Dying — the worst mass extinction Earth has ever seen. What took nature millions of years, we’re doing in a couple of centuries.

And then there are the tipping points that could push us much further. Scientists now believe we’re locked into at least 2.5°C of warming. Pass enough tipping points, and we’re looking at 4–5°C on a fundamentally altered planet.

When someone tells you, “It’s just 3°C warmer,” remember: that’s the global average. On land, where we live, farm, and build our cities, we’re looking at 6°C. How many of our crops can survive that? How many of our coastal cities will still exist?

This isn’t just about climate change anymore. This is a symptom of the larger problem known as overshoot, where overpopulation and overconsumption are pushing the planet beyond its natural limits.

And there’s no easy way out.

But We’re Not As Screwed As You Might Think — or I May Sound

I could go on for days listing all the reasons to feel hopeless. But what good does that do? We can’t understand or fix the world’s energy system by focusing on the latest heartbreaking story. Yes, 2024 saw a slew of grim climate records, but 2024 also saw a tremendous outpouring of commitment from people trying to create a new world, one where emissions drop, and hope rises.

Because there’s a lot of good happening amidst the terrifying. In fact, there’s power in this collective struggle, as people come together to challenge the old systems and create something better.

From courtrooms to laboratories, from city halls to remote conservation sites, people are scoring victories that seemed impossible just years ago. No, these wins alone won’t restore our planet to its pre-industrial state, and change doesn’t happen in a straight line. But they prove that human ingenuity and determination can create ripple effects far beyond what we imagine. What if the next breakthrough is just around the corner? What if we’re closer to the tipping point for positive change than we realize? What if we get it right?

There must be accountability in the wins.

So here are 12 stories that happened in 2024 that can show us that humanity is indeed in a truly unique position to build a sustainable future. The world is home to some really cool stuff, too, things that suggest we’re not as doomed as some might think.

1 → A record-breaking year for The Ocean Cleanup. Yes, the world desperately needs policies to end plastic pollution, but unfortunately, we have seen a historic opportunity to address this critical problem completely wasted when no agreement was reached in Busan, South Korea, on how to deliver a landmark international Global Plastics Treaty. Still, in 2024, the Ocean Cleanup (my personal climate heroes, if I’m being honest) removed 11.5 million kilos of plastic from oceans and rivers. This total surpasses the amount collected in all previous years combined. In April, they reached 10 million kg of waste extracted afeter 6 years of river and ocean operations. And only 7 months later, they doubled that amount, reaching an astounding 20 million kg of plastic removed. Speak about climate action.

2 → Whales are teaching us about communication. St Andrew’s University biologist Luke Rendell has documented something fascinating: sperm whales synchronizing their clicks in what appears to be social bonding. This isn’t just fascinating — it’s forcing us to rethink what we know about animal intelligence. What other conversations are happening in our oceans?

3 → Every life form is contributing — and ants are so cool. While tracking 17 million insects through the Pyrenees, Exeter University’s Will Hawkes discovered that these miniature marathoners — most smaller than your fingernail — fly over 1,000km to pollinate flowers and maintain ecosystem balance. Meanwhile, ants demonstrated they can outsmart humans in collective problem-solving. Nature’s small miracles, indeed.

4 → Science is becoming more accessible, one sign at a time. Audrey Cameron, a science educator at the University of Edinburgh, is adapting 100 new signs for British Sign Language users to discuss wildlife with the deaf community. A small shift, but a powerful one for inclusivity in climate conversations.

5 → Conservation isn’t just wishful thinking — it’s science that works. When researchers at Oxford and Kent analyzed 665 conservation projects, they found something remarkable: whether it’s restoring wetlands or bringing back endangered species, these efforts consistently improve ecosystems. Even better? We’re getting more effective at it.

6 → Pop culture is taking climate change seriously. When Disney’s Moana 2 tackled sea-level rise and ocean acidification, it did more than entertain — it brought Pacific Islanders’ climate struggle to millions of screens. As Leeds University’s Susan Ann Samuel notes, it reflects real communities fighting for survival. When will other major studios follow suit?

7 → The future of food might be simpler than we thought. Oxford’s Marco Springmann compared high-tech meat alternatives with humble legumes. The winner? Those simple beans your grandmother cooked. They’re healthier, cheaper, and better for the planet than any lab-grown alternative. Could the solution to our food crisis be hiding in plain sight?

8 → 2024 marked a turning point in our relationship with fossil fuels. The UK, a nation that once powered the Industrial Revolution with coal, finally closed its last coal power plant. This wasn’t just another headline — it was the first G7 nation to completely purge coal from its power grid — and only five proposals for coal plants remain across OECD’s 38 countries. Even sacred institutions joined the revolution — the British Library installed a £1.5 million solar array, while the Church of England transformed a historic chapel into a solar powerhouse.

9 → Wind Turbines keep getting bigger and better. The largest wind turbines today are massive — skyscraper-sized, with blades as long as Big Ben’s clock tower. The next challenge is to position them on floating platforms in deeper, windier waters. It’s an exciting leap forward for offshore wind technology.

10 → The EV Revolution is well underway. In Norway, the electric vehicle revolution isn’t just a buzzword — it’s reality. With EVs making up 25% of all cars and plans to eliminate fossil-fuel cars by 2025, they’re showing what’s possible. The impact? The International Energy Agency reported that global oil demand is softening, even in China, where gasoline use is expected to peak next year. Can other nations follow Norway’s lead fast enough?

11 → Amazon Deforestation Slowed Under Lula. In Brazil, President Lula’s administration is proving that protecting the Amazon isn’t just environmental rhetoric — it’s achievable policy. They’ve cut deforestation by 50% in just one year. Despite record wildfires, this is early but promising news for the planet’s lungs.

12 → The courts are stepping up. When Swiss women won their climate case against their government in the European Court of Human Rights, they didn’t just win for Switzerland — they opened a door for climate justice worldwide. Now, island nations and youth activists are taking their fight to the International Court of Justice. Their question is simple but profound: Don’t wealthy nations have a legal obligation to protect the climate?

BONUS TRACK: Here Comes The Sun — Solar Energy Had a Record Year. Solar capacity around the world was rolled out at a record pace, as bargain panel prices helped countries deploy cleaner energy. Major markets like China, India and Germany showed steady growth, while demand soared from countries that previously showed little interest in the energy source, such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Meanwhile, both wind and solar capacity surpassed a target in China almost six years ago.

The rate at which we’re adding renewable energy capacity jumped 50% during 2023. A new report found that wind and sun are growing faster than any electricity source in history, even fossil fuels. In India, coal-generated electricity dropped below 50% for the first time since 1966. There are signs that 2023 saw the peak in global emissions, thanks to the growth of renewable energy.

Now, we need to accelerate this decline to catch up with the physics of global warming.

To Be The Tipping Point

So 2024 will go down as the hottest year on record — and likely at least 125,000 years. The disasters were not abstract probabilities or far-off concerns — they were here, loud, and relentless.

Now, 2025 looms large on the horizon. Will it be a continuation of this downward spiral or the first step toward a new narrative? Will we let these stories become our epitaph, or will we finally begin to rewrite them?

It’s easy to feel paralyzed in the face of such devastation, but despair and defeat cannot be a strategy. Yes, our planet’s health is well outside the safe operating space for humanity. Yes, the cascading effects of human impacts are accelerating. But no, this doesn’t mean we’re powerless.

The same world that set the ozone layer on a path to recovery through the Montreal Protocol still has the capacity to tackle this crisis. That success wasn’t born from apathy; it was driven by urgency, collaboration, and action. If that global effort could heal the sky, imagine what’s possible if we bring the same urgency to our forests, oceans, and communities.

And it starts with you.

You don’t have to wait for global initiatives, billion-dollar investments or, even worse, catastrophic events to knock down your door. Change starts closer to home.

Your “backyard” might look different from mine, but its foundation is the same: choices, actions, and voice. It’s about what you do when the headlines fade and the noise dies down. Maybe it’s swapping your car for public transport or planting trees in an urban jungle. Maybe it’s pushing for change at your workplace or supporting those fighting for environmental justice. Every decision you make becomes part of a ripple effect, a movement larger than any one of us. You’re not just living in this moment — you’re shaping what comes next.

There’s plenty we can do when we unite in positive, collective efforts, even starting with your very “backyard.” Sometimes, you may think you want to disappear, but all you really want is to be found be likeminds who believe in the same.

A brighter, more resilient world isn’t just a dream. It’s waiting for us to choose it.

So be loud.

Be the tipping point.